England vs Denmark Betting Preview
Having successfully negotiated the first hurdle against Serbia, England head to the Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt for their next Euro 2024 assignment. Lying in wait are familiar foes Denmark, who will likely have been disappointed to pick up only a point in their opening clash with Slovenia.
Anything other than a defeat for England effectively guarantees qualification. A win for Denmark should be enough to see them through, whilst a loss or draw will leave them needing to pick up something in their final game with Serbia.
England vs Denmark Head-to-Head
As expected, England leads the all-time head-to-head record between these nations, with 13 wins to four for Denmark and five draws. This will be the fourth meeting at a major tournament finals. The first came in a goalless draw in the 1992 Euros – a tournament which Denmark ultimately went on to win, despite only being drafted in as last-minute replacements for Yugoslavia. Ten years later, England saw off the Danes 3-0 in the last 16 of the World Cup in Japan and South Korea. Most recently, the Three Lions beat Denmark 2-1 in the delayed Euros of 2021, thanks to an extra-time strike from Harry Kane.
Opening Game Performances
Starting with England, the Three Lions roared out of the traps against Serbia, looking dominant in all areas and taking the lead through Jude Bellingham – who looked every inch one of the world's best throughout. Unfortunately, having taken the lead, England reverted to type - retreating into their shells, struggling to find any rhythm or attacking impetus in the second half, as Serbia threatened to salvage a point.
In the end, England ended the game with an uninspiring xG of 0.70 and lost the total shot count 6-5. Taking the positives from the performance, England excelled defensively, with Marc Guehi shining on his major tournament debut. For all that their attacking threat disappeared after the break, Serbia never really looked like scoring – ending the game with an xG of 0.27 and only forcing Pickford to break a sweat with a late effort from range.
Denmark can count themselves a little unfortunate not to have picked up a win against Slovenia. Bossing 67.8% of possession, they won the total shot count 16-11 and led shots on target 4-2 – with every starting outfield player having a shot of some description. Ultimately winning the xG battle 1.74 – 0.99, the failure to convert that dominance puts a little pressure on the Danes heading into the last two games.
Best Bets
If England start on the front foot and remain on the front foot, they have by far the stronger attacking options and should be able to put this to bed. However, backing this England side to blow teams away comes fraught with risk, with the spectre of Southgate’s pragmatic approach making a scenario similar to the Serbia game eminently possible. As such, we prefer a selection of stats/special bets in this one.
Against Slovenia, the vast majority of Denmark’s attacking threat came down the right-hand side, with Alexander Bah appearing particularly dangerous without really finding a consistent end product. Expect that right-sided bias to continue in this one, with the Danes likely to target the weaker left side of the English back line. With that in mind, it could be worth backing Kieran Trippier to pick up a card in 90 minutes, with the Newcastle man playing out of position on the left and still appearing a little rusty following his return from injury.
- Recommended Bet - Kieran Trippier to receive a card @ 5/1 with William Hill
One of the most notable aspects of England’s defensive display against Serbia was that they didn’t allow the opposition a single shot from inside the area. That suggests England are performing better than pre-tournament expectations at restricting chances. Barring the threat down the right, we expect Denmark may experience a similarly frustrating evening and eventually resort to taking shooting opportunities from range whenever they arise. As such, we like the look of Christian Eriksen to have over one shot on target. A goalscorer in the first game and on all the set pieces, he could be the Danish player who gives Pickford the most to do.
- Recommended Bet - Christian Eriksen to have Over 1 shot on target @ 17/5 with William Hill
Finally, the eye is drawn to the fact that, despite dominating overall, Denmark allowed Slovenia five shots at goal from inside the area, including four in and around the penalty spot. That’s Harry Kane territory, and should England find similar gaps, the Bayern man can be relied upon to finish.
- Recommended Bet - Harry Kane to score any time @ 23/20 with William Hill
For the adventurous punter, combining the above three selections in a Bet Builder pays out at 55/1 with William Hill.
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