Euro 2024 - Semi Finals Betting Preview
And then there were four. Of the 24 nations that began, only France, Spain, the Netherlands, and…England still remain. Hope springs eternal that this could finally be the Three Lions year. Ronald Koeman’s Netherlands outfit stand between Gareth Southgate and a date in Berlin on Sunday evening, whilst France take on Spain in the first of the semi-finals on Tuesday evening - two mouthwatering contests, which we can’t let pass by without a bet or two.
Spain vs France – Tuesday 8pm
Two huge footballing nations lock horns in the opening semi-final. However, quite how entertaining this turns out to be largely depends on the approach adopted by Didier Deschamps. On all known evidence, that approach is unlikely to be particularly positive.
France have made it this far despite scoring a grand total of one goal in open play across their opening five games. On the plus side, they have conceded only once over a tough run of games – Austria, Netherlands, Poland, Belgium, and Portugal. Poland aside, that’s as difficult a run as faced by any side and reflects an impressive defensive performance.
Spain are the neutral's favourite, and rightly so, with La Roja adopting an attacking approach at odds with many sides in the competition – notably France and England. However, there is an argument that despite being easy on the eye, they have been no more effective than France.
Taking the one-sided matchups with Albania and Georgia out of the equation, Spain are averaging 1.81 xG for and 1.54 xG against. In four clashes with Austria, Netherlands, Belgium, and Portugal, France are averaging 1.37 xG for and 0.88 xG against. That gives Spain an edge of 0.44 in attack and France an advantage of 0.66 in defence. Concerningly for Spain, that defensive inequality could be greater here, with Robin Le Normand and Dani Carvajal suspended and high-energy midfielder Pedri injured.
Overall, we give the slight edge to France, which is at odds with the betting market, with Spain favourites across the board. France to win in 90 minutes is the first leg of our Bet Builder. That average of 1.54xG conceded versus Croatia, Italy, and Germany is also concerning, particularly given the defensive suspensions. Boost your odds by adding France to score over 1.5 goals.
Finally, referee Slavko Vincic is averaging 4.5 cards per game in the competition. In the likelihood that France will aim to disrupt Spain’s rhythm wherever possible, we suspect he will at least maintain that average.
Recommended Bet Builder:
- France to win in 90 minutes
- France to score over 1.5 goals
- Over 3.5 cards in the game
A £10 bet returns £70 with William Hill.
Netherlands vs England - Wednesday 8pm
If public opinion had any bearing on results, England may not have made it this far. Alas, style counts for little in the realm of football results, and despite failing to find much in the way of attacking fluidity, here England are in the semi-finals. There are reasons to head into this game with optimism. Firstly, that display against the Swiss was marginally the best yet, and secondly, England have been largely excellent at the back, conceding only three times across their five fixtures. That gives them a base to work from, but they really do need to find a way to supply an increasingly isolated Harry Kane. Cole Palmer and Anthony Gordon are options, but we don’t expect Southgate to name either in his starting line-up.
On the face of it, the Netherlands average xG of 1.51 compares favourably with the dismal 0.94 of England. However, those numbers are heavily influenced by games against poor Poland, high-pressing Austria, overmatched Romania, and gung-ho Turkey. Of the sides the Netherlands have faced, France are the most similar to England. Against Didier Deschamps' outfit, the Netherlands recorded an xG of just 0.58 and only 37.40% possession in a goalless draw.
This looks like England’s most difficult challenge to date – as you would expect of a semi-final – but we like their chances of making it through. To our eyes, the Netherlands' visual improvement has come when beating up on inferior sides. The fact that boring France dominated the ball against the Dutch should offer encouragement, as should the fact that, despite winning, the Netherlands allowed Turkey nine chances inside the area, with Virgil van Dijk far from at his best.
Following the logic that we favour England and expect the Three Lions to have most of the ball, we like the look of England to win in 90 minutes and the Netherlands to have the most cards. That’s a solid double at 9/2, but we will boost our bet by including Harry Kane to score. The England skipper has been derided by many so far (probably fairly so) but is still in with a shot of the Golden Boot and will take advantage should the Netherlands prove as generous in dishing out chances as in their last game.
Recommended Bet Builder:
- England to win in 90 minutes
- Netherlands to Receive the Most Cards
- Harry Kane to Score at Anytime
A £10 bet returns £90 with William Hill.
Top 20 Betting Offers
|
New customers only. Register with BETFRED50. Deposit £10+ via Debit Card and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get £50 in free bets. 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility & payment exclusions apply. T&Cs apply. |
|||||
|
New UK Customers only. Use code welcomeMB40. Sign up and place at least 3 bets of £10 or more on seperate events on your first day of betting. If account has net sportsbook losses at the end of first day's betting, Gentleman Jim will refund 50% of these as a free bet up to £40. Full Terms apply. 18+ begambleaware. |
|||||
|
Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. Registration required. |
|||||
|
T&Cs apply. 18+ New customers only. You must place a single win-only bet of £10 or more with odds of evens (2.00) or greater to qualify. £10 Free bet will be credited once the qualifying bet has settled. Must use code B10G10 when creating an account. |
|||||
|
18+. Play Safe. New customers only, using promo code T60. Valid from 13/04/2022. Online play. Get £60 Bonus split between Vegas & Sports in the following manner – (i) Deposit £10 to unlock £20 Vegas Free Bet on Selected Games (72hr expiry, wagering reqs apply); then (ii) bet £10+ (odds 1/2+) with cash (excl. £10 deposit) or Vegas winnings (after wager reqs met). Once settled, receive £40 Sports Free Bets excluding Virtual Markets (4x £10, 7 days expiry). Full T&Cs apply. #ad |
|||||
|
18+. New Customers Only. Max 1 x £10 Free Bet. Qualifying bets at Odds of 1/1 or greater. Paid as Bonus Token Min 4/5 Odds Req. Skrill, Neteller, Paypal not eligible. T&Cs Apply |
|||||
|
18+ New customers only. Opt in via mobile device, bet up to £40 (min. £20) on any football market at odds of 2.00+, in 7 days. Get up to £40 in free bets on selected markets. Bonuses expire in 7 days. T&Cs apply, see below. GambleAware.org | Please gamble responsibly |
|||||
|
18+ New UK+IRE Customers only. Min first £5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 4x £5 free bets. Stake not returned. Restrictions + Free bet T&Cs apply. |
|||||
|
New UK Customers. Register using code BETGETSPORTS. Must bet £10 in total on 4+ legs, min odds 4.0. £20 awarded as 4 X £5 free bets once settled, AND 50 Free Spins to use on Big Bass Splash (valued at 10p per spin). Free bet T&Cs Apply. 18+. BeGambleAware.org |
|||||
|
£10 min deposit. First bet mins odds 1.5 placed within 14 days of sign-up. 2 x £10 in Free Bets: valid for 7 days, free bet stakes not returned. Bet Responsibly. BeGambleAware.org. 18+ T&Cs apply.
|
|||||
|
New UK customers only. Qualifying bet should be a Single or Accumulator bet, min stake £10, and min odds 1.9. Get £50 in Free bets which must be placed with a min odds of 2.0 include: 1 x £10 Free bet for horse racing, 1 x £10 Free bet on football, 2 x 10 Free bet In-play, 1 x £10 Free bet Acca (min 3 selections). To unlock the offer, complete the first deposit via the banking app. Max payout – £500. 7 day expiry. 18+. Begambleaware.org |
|||||
|
New bettors; Code SPORT; Wager deposit & bonus 8x; Max qualifying bet stake=initial bonus; Valid 60 days; Min odds, payment method exclusions apply; New customers only. T&C apply; 18+ |
|||||
|
18+. BeGambleAware.org. New GB customers only. Min £10 debit card deposit. Place a £10+ bet at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days. Opt in for £20 in free bets and £20 Casino Bonus. Valid for 7 days. Geographical restrictions and T&C’s apply. #AD |
|||||
|
18+. New customers only. Min deposit £20. Max One £10 Free Bet. Min turnover £20. Qualifying Bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 (2.00) or greater. Paid as bonus token with Min 4/5 (1.80) odds req. T&Cs apply. |
|||||
|
New Customers place a £25 fixed odds bet at minimum odds of 1/2. Get £50 in Free Bets as: 5 x £5 free fixed odds bets + 4 x £5 free Total Goals spread bets + 50 free spins on Starburst 18+. Full promotions terms apply. |
|||||
|
New Customers. Min Deposit: £5. Maximum Free Bet: £30. First qualifying bet with 3+ selections. Overall odds: 3.00+ (2/1). If first bet loses free bets will be credited after bet settled. 100 Free Spins on Gold Blitz credited on settlement of qualifying Acca bet. 18+. BeGambleAware.org. Bet The Responsible Way. Full terms apply |
|||||
|
New customers Deposit and place your first bet on Sports at odds of Evens (2.0) or greater. Once bet is settled you will receive 1x £10 Free Bet Token to be used on Football, 1x £10 Free Bet Token to be used on Horse Racing, and 20 Extra spins (value per spin 50p), to be used on Book of Dead. Total bonus value £30. Full terms apply. 18+ begambleaware. |
|||||
|
New customers only. Min deposit £10. Max one £15 Free Bet. Min Turnover £15 to qualify. Qualifying bets must be at odds of Evens (2.0) or bigger. Full Terms apply. 18+ begambleaware. |
|||||
|
New Players Only. Free bet - one-time stake of £50, min odds 1.5, stake not returned. 1X wager the winnings. Wager from real balance first. Wager calculated on bonus bets only. Max conversion: £200. Valid for 7 Days from receipt. Limited to 1 sport & 5 casino brand/s within the network. Withdrawal requests void all active/pending bonuses. Excluded Skrill and Neteller deposits. Full Terms apply. |
|||||
|
Deposit and bet on any sportsbook markets of your choice at odds of evens (2.00) or greater. Get 50% back of your first days losses as a Free Bet up to £50 plus 50 Free Spins. Min. 3 bets required. If your account is up, you’ll receive a £5 Free Bet regardless plus 10 Free Spins. Use coupon code "5050" at registration. T&Cs apply | 18+ New UK Customers Only | GambleAware.org | Gamble Responsibly |
