Euro 2024 - Semi Finals Betting Preview
And then there were four. Of the 24 nations that began, only France, Spain, the Netherlands, and…England still remain. Hope springs eternal that this could finally be the Three Lions year. Ronald Koeman’s Netherlands outfit stand between Gareth Southgate and a date in Berlin on Sunday evening, whilst France take on Spain in the first of the semi-finals on Tuesday evening - two mouthwatering contests, which we can’t let pass by without a bet or two.
Spain vs France – Tuesday 8pm
Two huge footballing nations lock horns in the opening semi-final. However, quite how entertaining this turns out to be largely depends on the approach adopted by Didier Deschamps. On all known evidence, that approach is unlikely to be particularly positive.
France have made it this far despite scoring a grand total of one goal in open play across their opening five games. On the plus side, they have conceded only once over a tough run of games – Austria, Netherlands, Poland, Belgium, and Portugal. Poland aside, that’s as difficult a run as faced by any side and reflects an impressive defensive performance.
Spain are the neutral's favourite, and rightly so, with La Roja adopting an attacking approach at odds with many sides in the competition – notably France and England. However, there is an argument that despite being easy on the eye, they have been no more effective than France.
Taking the one-sided matchups with Albania and Georgia out of the equation, Spain are averaging 1.81 xG for and 1.54 xG against. In four clashes with Austria, Netherlands, Belgium, and Portugal, France are averaging 1.37 xG for and 0.88 xG against. That gives Spain an edge of 0.44 in attack and France an advantage of 0.66 in defence. Concerningly for Spain, that defensive inequality could be greater here, with Robin Le Normand and Dani Carvajal suspended and high-energy midfielder Pedri injured.
Overall, we give the slight edge to France, which is at odds with the betting market, with Spain favourites across the board. France to win in 90 minutes is the first leg of our Bet Builder. That average of 1.54xG conceded versus Croatia, Italy, and Germany is also concerning, particularly given the defensive suspensions. Boost your odds by adding France to score over 1.5 goals.
Finally, referee Slavko Vincic is averaging 4.5 cards per game in the competition. In the likelihood that France will aim to disrupt Spain’s rhythm wherever possible, we suspect he will at least maintain that average.
Recommended Bet Builder:
- France to win in 90 minutes
- France to score over 1.5 goals
- Over 3.5 cards in the game
A £10 bet returns £70 with William Hill.
Netherlands vs England - Wednesday 8pm
If public opinion had any bearing on results, England may not have made it this far. Alas, style counts for little in the realm of football results, and despite failing to find much in the way of attacking fluidity, here England are in the semi-finals. There are reasons to head into this game with optimism. Firstly, that display against the Swiss was marginally the best yet, and secondly, England have been largely excellent at the back, conceding only three times across their five fixtures. That gives them a base to work from, but they really do need to find a way to supply an increasingly isolated Harry Kane. Cole Palmer and Anthony Gordon are options, but we don’t expect Southgate to name either in his starting line-up.
On the face of it, the Netherlands average xG of 1.51 compares favourably with the dismal 0.94 of England. However, those numbers are heavily influenced by games against poor Poland, high-pressing Austria, overmatched Romania, and gung-ho Turkey. Of the sides the Netherlands have faced, France are the most similar to England. Against Didier Deschamps' outfit, the Netherlands recorded an xG of just 0.58 and only 37.40% possession in a goalless draw.
This looks like England’s most difficult challenge to date – as you would expect of a semi-final – but we like their chances of making it through. To our eyes, the Netherlands' visual improvement has come when beating up on inferior sides. The fact that boring France dominated the ball against the Dutch should offer encouragement, as should the fact that, despite winning, the Netherlands allowed Turkey nine chances inside the area, with Virgil van Dijk far from at his best.
Following the logic that we favour England and expect the Three Lions to have most of the ball, we like the look of England to win in 90 minutes and the Netherlands to have the most cards. That’s a solid double at 9/2, but we will boost our bet by including Harry Kane to score. The England skipper has been derided by many so far (probably fairly so) but is still in with a shot of the Golden Boot and will take advantage should the Netherlands prove as generous in dishing out chances as in their last game.
Recommended Bet Builder:
- England to win in 90 minutes
- Netherlands to Receive the Most Cards
- Harry Kane to Score at Anytime
A £10 bet returns £90 with William Hill.
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