One Leg Left On a Football Acca, What To Do?

The beloved accumulator bet, or Acca for short, continues to captivate punters - offering an interest in several events and providing the type of small-stakes, big-win opportunity that sets the punting pulse racing. A staple of the sports betting world for decades, the acca shows no sign of losing its popularity as one of the most popular bet types in the land.

Whilst available across all sports, the Acca is particularly well suited to the most popular betting pursuit in the UK – football betting. Compared to horse racing, a winning football Acca always feels far more achievable. UK horse races feature an average of 8 runners, meaning that, on average, each leg of an acca has eight possible outcomes. Football, in contrast, requires us to select from only three in the Match result markets (home win, draw, away win) or just two in markets such as Both Teams to Score or over/under 2.5 goals.

Of course, in the modern age, picking your teams, settling on a stake, and placing your bet is only the beginning of your football Acca adventure. Recent innovations, such as Cash Out and Partial Cash Out, present the opportunity to profit early or cut your losses.

Where available, you can often Cash Out from the moment you place your bet. However, the real decisions arrive when your Acca edges closer to success with winning leg after winning leg. Nowhere is the tension greater than when you have successfully reached the last leg of your acca. Should you take the cash out value or let it ride?

At many leading betting companies, you will at least have the “acca insurance” consolation prize (stake back as a free bet if only one leg lets you down). However, this will likely be small change compared to your potential payout.

It would be nice to guarantee a little more than a free bet when we have only one leg to go. As mentioned, Cashing Out will usually be an option, but there are two alternatives – backing against our selection with a bookmaker and laying on the betting exchanges. Let’s look at a couple of example fourfold bets.

Example 1: When the Last Leg is a Favourite

We turn to the Sunday, the 19th of January, Premier League fixture list for our example. Having studied the four games on offer, we concluded that the combination of the new manager effect and Spurs' inability to defend would see Everton see off Tottenham at Goodison Park in the first game. Next up, we favoured an exciting and cohesive Brighton to inflict more pain on the Old Trafford faithful by beating Manchester United. Thirdly, surprise package Nottingham Forest looked like an obvious pick at home to basement boys Southampton. And finally, having shown signs of emerging from their disastrous pre-Christmas spell, Manchester City would surely have too much for struggling Ipswich Town at Portman Road. Combining our four picks created the following fourfold.

• Everton to beat Tottenham @ 15/8
• Brighton to beat Manchester United @ 12/5
• Nottingham Forest to beat Southampton @ 2/5
• Manchester City to beat Ipswich @ 1/3

A £25 fourfold came with potential returns of £456.17 - not bad for a Sunday afternoon sat watching the football on TV.

Everton flew out of the traps at Goodison to head into the break with a surely unassailable 3-0 lead. Few things are ever straightforward in the punting world, and back came Spurs in the second half. Happily, for the sake of our bet (not so much Ange Postecoglou) Richarlison’s late strike was a case of too little too late, as David Moyes' men held on for a 3-2 success.

It was a similar story at the City Ground, where the Tricky Trees strolled into a 3-0 half-time lead, only to wobble their way to a 3-2 success after the interval. Over at the Theatre of Dreams/Nightmares, Brighton’s early advantage was wiped out from the penalty spot in the opening 45. Happily, the Seagulls soared in the second half to pick up a 3-1 success - over to you, Manchester City.

At odds of just 1/3, Manchester City were the most likely of our selections to win, placing us in an excellent position. Initially relaxed and happy to let the bet run its course, jitters began to set in when we recalled that City had won only two of their last eight Premier League away games, whilst it wasn’t so long ago that Ipswich produced their performance of the season when seeing off Chelsea 2-0.

Following a little Dutch courage, we ultimately let the bet ride, but had our nerves run amok, what could we have done to secure an early profit? In 21st Century Football Acca betting, there are three options:

Option 1: Cash Out

The quickest and easiest way to send a profit hurtling towards your betting balance is to click that tempting Cash-Out button. The problem comes when attempting to determine whether the cash-out offer is fair.

When assessing any Cash Out amount, we first compare the offer to the Expected Value (EV) of the bet. To calculate the EV, use the following formula.

• EV = (Potential Payout x Probability of Winning) – (Initial Stake x Probability of Losing)

In our £25 fourfold example, odds of 1/3 suggest a 75% chance of our bet winning and, consequently, a 25% chance of losing, leading to the following calculation

• EV = (£456.17 x 0.75) – (£25 x 0.25)
• EV = £335.88

As such, a Cash-Out amount of £335.88 would represent a fair offer. Anything above this, and you are getting a good deal. In our experience, the offer will usually be below the EV amount due to the bookmakers' profit margin.

Bookies commonly build a margin of around 6% into their football betting markets. If we are prepared to accept this margin as an inevitable part of betting with a bookmaker, a “fair” Cash-Out offer would be 94% of the EV value, or £315.73 in our example.

If the offer is at least close to fair, whether or not you take it will make little difference to your overall betting life. The decision may come down to your mood, confidence in the last leg, or how much you could do with the guaranteed profit at the time.

Another option is to take the middle road and partially cash out your bet. Say, for example, you were offered a cash-out value of £335.88. You might opt to partially cash out for half your stake – guaranteeing a return of £167.94 plus an additional £228.09 (half of the initial £456.17 original return) if City go on to do the business.

However, before you rush to cash-out, it is at least worth considering if you could achieve a better return by following a different path. Which brings us to options 2 and 3.

Option 2: Back the Other Match Outcomes

One option to consider when making it to the last leg of an Acca is to back the other match outcomes to guarantee a profit. In the case of our example fourfold, we stand to receive £456.17 if Manchester City wins, having laid out only £25.

The simplest approach to this method is to back the Ipswich Win/Draw Double Result, which was available at 2/1 (3.0) in our example.

To calculate the stake required to guarantee an equal return, divide your potential acca return by the decimal odds of the double result. In our example, this creates a Double Result stake of £152.06 (£456.17 / 3 = £152.06). This increases our total outlay to £177.06 and creates the possible outcomes.

• Manchester City Win - £456.17 Return from winning Acca - £177.06 total stakes = £279.11 profit
• Draw or Ipswich Win - £456.18 Return from winning Double Result Bet - £177.06 total stakes = £279.12 profit

Alternatively, you may wish to stake in such a way that you achieve a greater profit if City win but at least secure a decent win should the game end in a draw or Ipswich Win. For example, placing only £50 on the Draw or Ipswich Win would create total stakes of £75 and produce the following possible outcomes.

• Manchester City Win - £456.17 Return from winning Acca - £75 total stakes = £381.17 profit
• Draw or Ipswich Win - £150 Return from winning Double Result Bet - £75 total stakes = £75 profit

Taking this process one step further, you could taper your win in relation to the likelihood of the result – guaranteeing most for the City win, less for the draw, and less again should Ipswich cause a shock. In our example, Ipswich were a best price of 7/1, with the draw available at 9/2.

There are endless permutations of how you may wish to split your stakes in this scenario. One example would be to place £15 on Ipswich to win at 7/1 and £40 on the draw at 9/2, creating total stakes of £80 and the following possible outcomes.

• Manchester City Win - £456.17 Return from winning Acca - £80 total stakes = £376.17 profit
• Draw - £220 Return from winning Draw Bet - £80 total stakes = £140 profit
• Ipswich Win - £120 Return from winning Double Result Bet - £80 total stakes = £40 profit

Option 3: Lay Manchester City on a Betting Exchange

We head to leading betting exchanges such as EasyBet for our third option. For the uninitiated, betting exchanges allow us to back to win in the standard way or act as bookmakers and lay selections.

In our example, we would head to EasyBet and lay Manchester City. Note that betting exchanges are renowned for their excellent odds, meaning we would likely have to lay City at a bigger price than the 1/3 generally available with the bookmakers. However, for the sake of simplicity, we will stick to that 1/3 price when explaining how the process works.

At odds of 1/3, you need only risk £33.33 to achieve £100 in profit if City fail to win the game. This gives you plenty of options, including the following.

To lay Manchester City to cover your £25 stake, you need only risk £8.33:

• Manchester City Wins - £8.33 loss on your exchange lay. £431.17 profit on your winning treble = £422.84 profit
• Ipswich Win or Draw - £25 profit on your exchange lay. £25 loss on your fourfold = Break Even

Or how about aiming for a reasonable profit either way by laying Manchester City for £300, requiring you to risk only £100:

• Manchester City Win - £100 loss on your exchange lay. £431.17 profit on your winning treble = £331.17 profit
• Ipswich Win or Draw - £300 profit on your exchange lay. £25 loss on your treble = £275 profit

Laying City for £342.12, requiring you to risk £114.04, would produce an equal result whatever the outcome:

• Manchester City Wins - £114.04 loss on your exchange lay. £431.17 profit on your winning treble = £317.13 profit
• Ipswich Win or Draw - £342.12 profit on your exchange lay. £25 loss on your treble = £317.12 profit

Example 2: When the Last Leg is a Big Price

Having a short, priced favourite is far preferable to having the money rolling onto a big price. To illustrate this point, let’s look at the various scenarios if we changed just one selection in our example fourfold. Deciding that City were on the slide and Ipswich had shown signs of improvement, we placed the following £25 fourfold.

• Everton to beat Tottenham @ 15/8
• Brighton to beat Manchester United @ 12/5
• Nottingham Forest to beat Southampton @ 2/5
• Ipswich to beat Manchester City @ 7/1

God loves an optimist (and probably, so do the bookies), and our speculative £25 punt now returns £2737.

Option 1: Cash Out

We again need to use the Expected Value calculation to assess the value of any cash-out offer:

• EV = (Potential Payout x Probability of Winning) – (Initial Stake x Probability of Losing)

In this case, odds of 7/1 suggest a 12.5% chance of our bet winning and an 87.5% chance of losing, leading to the following calculation.

• EV = (£2737 x 0.125) – (£25 x 0.875)
• EV = £320.85

When factoring in the bookmakers’ 6% margin, a relatively “fair” cash-out offer would be in the region of £301.60. Knowing that you need a shock result to land your Acca, this cash-out offer is likely to be all the more tempting. Of course, the bookmakers know only too well that you are more likely to take the offer in this scenario and may offer significantly less than the Expected Value.

If considering the Partial cash-out option, you may wish to cash in a greater percentage of your stake, given the unlikelihood of Ipswich winning. Using a Cash Out value of £301.60, cashing in 75% of your stake would guarantee £226.20 plus an additional £684.25 (25% of the original £2737 acca return) if Ipswich cause the upset.

Option 2: Back the Other Match Outcomes

With Ipswich on our side, we need to back the Manchester City Win/Draw Double Result, which was available at a prohibitive 1/14 (1.07) in our example. As we shall see, this dramatically affects the stake required to guarantee an equal return.

Dividing our potential acca return by the decimal odds of the double result produces a Double Result Stake of £2,557.94 (£2737 / 1.07 = £2557.94). Assuming you have enough spare cash to execute this strategy, this creates total stakes of £2582.94 and produces the following outcomes.

• Ipswich Win - £2737 Return from winning Acca - £2582.94 total stakes = £154.06 profit
• Draw or Manchester City Win - £2737 Return from winning Double Result Bet - £2582.94 total stakes = £154.06 profit

Perhaps you want to stick to your guns and ensure a greater profit if Ipswich win but at least get something if City do as the odds suggest they will. Staking £1500 on the City/Draw Double Result would create total stakes of £1525 and produce the following outcomes.

• Ipswich Win - £2737 Return from winning Acca - £1525 total stakes = £1212 profit
• Draw or City Win - £1607.14 Return from winning Double Result Bet - £1525 total stakes = £82.14 profit

Or perhaps you wish to reverse your decision entirely and weight your bet to receive the most if City win, less for the draw, and less again if Ipswich win. One example would be to place £2200 on Manchester City to win at 1/3 and £505 on the draw at 9/2, creating total stakes of £2730 and the following possible outcomes.

• Manchester City Win - £2933.33 Return from winning Manchester City bet - £2730 total stakes = £203.33 profit
• Draw - £2777.50 Return from winning Draw Bet - £2730.50 total stakes = £47.50 profit
• Ipswich Win - £2737 Return from winning Acca Bet - £2730 total stakes = £7 profit

As we can see, having the odds against you requires a far greater outlay for a smaller return.

Option 3: Lay Ipswich on a Betting Exchange

Using a price of 7/1 for the Ipswich Win, we now need to risk £700 to achieve £100 in profit if the Tractor Boys fail to deliver.

To lay Ipswich Town to cover your £25 stake, you must have £175 in your betting exchange account:

• Ipswich Town Win - £175 loss on your exchange lay. £2712 profit on your winning treble = £2537 profit
• Manchester City Win or Draw - £25 profit on your exchange lay. £25 loss on your fourfold = Break Even

Attempting to ensure a decent result either way will require a far bigger deposit. To Lay Ipswich for £350 you will need £2450 in your account:

• Ipswich Win - £2450 loss on your exchange lay. £2712 profit on your winning fourfold = £262 profit
• Manchester City Win or Draw - £350 profit on your exchange lay. £25 loss on your treble = £325 profit

Laying Ipswich for £342.12, requiring you to risk £2394.88, would produce an equal result whatever the outcome:

• Ipswich Win - £2394.88 loss on your exchange lay. £2712 profit on your winning treble = £317.13 profit
• Manchester City Win or Draw - £342.12 profit on your exchange lay. £25 loss on your treble = £317.12 profit

Many Options Available but the Choice is Yours

We all dream of landing that winning acca, and we are sure we aren’t alone in being plagued by the last-leg-letdown.

Next time you find yourself in the position of needing…Just. One. More. Leg. Remember that crossing your fingers and hoping for the best isn’t the only option.

Despite what many punters may tell you, there’s no shame in Cashing Out or Partially Cashing Out – particularly if the amount is meaningful to you. However, don’t dive straight in. A couple of quick calculations may reveal that heading to the betting exchanges, backing the double result, or tapering your potential payouts may be a more appealing proposition.

More Betting Guides:

One Leg Left On a Horse Racing Acca, What To Do?

How Does Edit My Acca Work, and Which Bookies Offer It?

What Stats to Use for Football Betting