One Leg Left On a Winning Acca, What To Do?

For much of betting history, placing an acca was a relatively simple process – pick the football teams, horses, etc., to carry your hopes and dreams, settle on a suitable stake, place the bet and go about your day. However, things are no longer so straightforward, with the advent of betting exchanges and the relatively new Cash Out innovation presenting bettors with an array of decisions once the bet is underway.

None of which matters much if your bet falls at the first hurdle, rendering your bet a loser at the earliest opportunity. But what about in the other, far more preferable scenario, where those acca legs just keep on winning all the way to the last leg - increasing the tension (and potential cash out value) as each of your willing runners does the decent thing and comes home in front?

A dream scenario for all horse racing acca punters, but one which can cause a fair degree of stress. Us racing fans don’t even have the Acca Insurance concession, which returns your stake as a free bet if only one leg lets you down, but usually only applies to football and other non-horse related sports.

So, with only one leg to go, should we cash out, let it ride, lay off on the betting exchanges, or are other options available? Let’s take a look at a couple of examples.

Example 1: When the Last Leg is a Big Price

No research is necessary for this bet, with our first acca drawn from our archives of betting (mis)adventures. The fateful wager occurred at the 2024 edition of Cheltenham Festival Trials Day and came in the shape of a simple £5 each-way treble on the following three challengers.

• 12:40 - Ginny’s Destiny @ 10/3
• 1:15 - Ga Law @ 8/1
• 4:10 - Isaac Des Obeaux @ 16/1

Having witnessed Ginny’s Destiny make virtually all the running en route to a 2¾l success and Ga Law put in a bold display of jumping to score by 1¾, all was going swimmingly heading into the final leg. It was at this stage we faced a decision. Do we leave the bet to run onto the longest shot in our treble, take the cash out on offer, or attempt to secure a profit in some other manner? For reasons we still find difficult to articulate, we decided upon option three….

What We Did/Don’t Do This

With Ginny’s Destiny obliging in leg two, we now had £194.85 running onto Isaac Des Obeaux to win at 16/1 and £21.71 onto the place part of the bet, creating potential total returns of £3421 – all for just a £10 outlay. And this is where the wheels came off.

Isaac Des Obeaux faced five rivals in leg 3, priced at 5/6, 5/1, 11/2, 15/2 and 20/1. In our haste, we decided to back all bar one of that quintet to the following stakes.

• Choccabloc - £25 @ 20/1 for potential returns of £525
• Lucky Place - £25 @ 15/2 for potential returns of £212.50
• Johnnywho - £25 @ 11/2 for potential returns of £162.50
• Antrim Coast - £25 @ 5/1 for potential returns of £150

As the race went off, we had now laid out a total of £110 but were guaranteed a profit of between £40 and £415 if any of the above four won and retained the potential for a £3311 profit if our original selection, Isaac Des Obeaux, did the business.

There was, of course, one flaw in this cunning plan, and he went by the name of Gidleigh Park. Sent off as the odds-on favourite, the Harry Fry runner relinquished the lead after the last only to get back up and score by ½l - turning our £5 each-way treble into a £110 loss. To add insult to injury, Isaac Des Obeaux crossed the line in third, which would have been fine had there been eight runners. Unfortunately, there were six, so only the top two positions counted for place purposes. Oh well, there’s always next time…

Lesson One: Plan in Advance

All of the above is painful to recount, but in fairness, there were mitigating circumstances. Namely, rather than following the action at home, we were out “socialising” and really not in the right frame of mind to calculate hedging options, in addition to the time pressure caused by an intermittent phone signal.

In hindsight, we would have been far better off letting the bet run and saving ourselves £100 or taking the cash out on offer. All of which brings us to our first lesson: If you are placing an acca which has the potential to win a relatively significant sum, ensure you will be in a position to act and ensure a profit should the opportunity arise. At home with a clear head and time on your hands = good. Down the raucous local on a Saturday afternoon = bad.

So, assuming we were more sensibly placed to make a decision, what could we have done differently? Relatively little, as it turns out. Of course, we could easily have avoided the additional £100 loss, but achieving a guaranteed profit in this scenario isn’t so straightforward. Let’s look at the potential options:

Option 1: Back EVERY other runner

This may often be a viable option in a sport such as football, where there are only three possible match outcomes. Racing is trickier, with many races featuring way more than the six runners in our example. Nevertheless, say we had the same £100 to spare and headed down the route of backing each other runner to guarantee the same return, the best solution would be as follows:

• £52.89 on Gidleigh Park at 5/6 - Returns £96.79
• £16.16 on Antrim Cross @ 5/1 - Returns £96.96
• £14.92 on Johnnywho @ 11/2 - Returns £96.98
• £11.41 on Lucky Place @ 15/2 - Returns £96.99
• £4.62 on Choccablock @ 20/1 - Returns £97.02

Our total outlay in this instance is again £110. If Isaac Des Obeaux wins, we again profit £3311. Any other result sees us lose around £13 (not factoring in the place part of the bet). I.e. we would have been £3 better off by simply letting the bet run. This illustrates the difficulty of securing a profit when the last leg of your accumulator is a big price.

Option Two: Lay Isaac Des Obeaux on the Betting Exchanges

Rather than messing around backing every other runner, why not act as a bookmaker and lay Isaac Des Obeaux on the betting exchanges? How would this have panned out?

It should be noted that the odds on the betting exchanges are often bigger than those available with bookmakers – particularly for outsiders – but for the sake of simplicity, we will assume that we could have laid Isaac Des Obeaux at the same price of 16/1.

In this instance, it is far easier to achieve a guaranteed profit – provided you have the required funds available: at 16/1, every £10 you lay will require £160 in your exchange account. However, assuming this isn’t an issue, you could tailor your lay as you see fit, as demonstrated in the following examples:

Say you lay Isaac Des Obeaux to cover your £10 stake:

• Isaac Des Obeaux Wins - £160 loss on your exchange lay. £3411 profit on your winning treble = £3251 profit
• Isaac Des Obeaux Loses - £10 profit on your exchange lay. £10 loss on your treble = Break Even

Or how about aiming for a reasonable profit either way by laying Isaac Des Obeaux for £100:

• Isaac Des Obeaux Wins - £1600 loss on your exchange lay. £3411 profit on your winning treble = £1811 profit
• Isaac Des Obeaux Loses - £100 profit on your exchange lay. £10 loss on your treble = £90 profit

Or to achieve an almost equal result either way with a £200 lay:

• Isaac Des Obeaux Wins - £3200 loss on your exchange lay. £3411 profit on your winning treble = £211 profit
• Isaac Des Obeaux Loses - £200 profit on your exchange lay. £10 loss on your treble = £190 profit

Option 3: Cash Out/Partial Cash Out

All of the above may sound like a lot of hassle but is relatively straightforward should you have the time/funds/inclination. However, it may be easier to simply take a profit via cash out or, alternatively, partially cash out to break even if your last leg loses and leave a potentially bigger profit than available via pure cash out if the last leg wins. It all comes down to personal preference, but at least make sure you have a clear head when making a decision.

But Doesn’t Cash Out Favour the Bookmaker

There are those who state that you should never Cash Out as this favours the bookmaker. This is true in theory, as when cashing out, the bookmaker takes its profit margin from your stake and the cash out part of your bet, whereas if you let the bet ride, you deprive the bookie of the profit margin on the cash out element. All very well in theory – rather different when you need only click a button to provide your balance with a healthy boost.

Are Alternative Bet Types Preferable

Another option when placing a bet on selections at relatively long odds is to cast the accumulator aside in favour of a full cover or partial cover bet. Using the same Cheltenham Trial’s Day selections, we could have used the same £10 stake to place a £1.25 Each Way Trixie, consisting of 3 x £1.25 each way doubles and a £1.25 each way treble.

After the wins of Ginny’s Destiny and Ga Law, we would now have a guaranteed return of £48.75 for our winning double, plus £5.42 for the each-way double. If Isaac Des Obeaux wins we would see our total returns rise to £1,211.40. If not our total return of £54.17 still represents a solid return on our £10 investment.

Example 2: When the Last Leg is a Short Price

It could all have been so different. If only we had selected Gidleigh Park rather than Isaac Des Obeaux in leg 3. We will use this fictitious bet as our example for the difference it makes when the last leg of your acca is a short price rather than a long shot. In this alternate reality, our £5 each way treble would look as follows:

• 12:40 - Ginny’s Destiny @ 10/3
• 1:15 - Ga Law @ 8/1
• 4:10 - Gidleigh Park @ 5/6

As we know, Ginny’s Destiny and Ga La performed admirably to send us into leg 3 on a high. However, 5/6 is rather different to 16/1, and in this instance, we would be looking at potential returns of £357.50 for the win side of the bet and £25.28 for the place portion - for a total of £382.78. Let’s look at the same options as in the first example in this new scenario.

Option 1: Back EVERY other runner

Doing the hard work early in an accumulator moves the ball firmly into your court. Having picked up 10/3 and 8/1 winners and “only” needing a 5/6 shot to prevail, we could split our £100 hedge fund between the other five runners as follows:

• £10.80 on Isaac Des Obeux at 16/1 - Returns £183.60
• £30.61 on Antrim Cross @ 5/1 - Returns £183.66
• £28.25 on Johnnywho @ 11/2 - Returns £183.63
• £21.60 on Lucky Place @ 15/2 - Returns £183.60
• £8.74 on Choccablock @ 20/1 - Returns £183.54

Our total outlay is again £110, but the potential returns are significantly better. If Gidleigh Park wins (which, of course, he did) we land £382.78 for our treble, securing a profit of £272.78. In all other instances, we receive close to £183, for a profit of £73.

Option Two: Lay Gidleigh Park on the Betting Exchanges

With the big price winners’ home and hosed, the exchange route is significantly less intimidating. With Isaac Des Obeaux, every £10 we laid would require a deposit of £160. In the case of Gidleigh Park (assuming a lay price of 5/6), the respective cost is only £8.33.

This situation makes achieving a decent result far more manageable for those with limited funds.

Say you lay Gidleigh Park to cover your £10 stake:

• Gidleigh Park Wins - £8.33 loss on your exchange lay. £372.78 profit on your winning treble = £364.45 profit
• Gidleigh Park Loses - £10 profit on your exchange lay. £10 loss on your treble = Break Even

Or how about aiming for a reasonable profit either way by laying Gidleigh Park for £100:

• Gidleigh Park Wins - £83.33 loss on your exchange lay. £372.78 profit on your winning treble = £289.45 profit
• Gidleigh Park Loses - £100 profit on your exchange lay. £10 loss on your treble = £90 profit

Or to achieve a close to even result either way with a £200 lay:

• Gidleigh Park Wins - £166.66 loss on your exchange lay. £372.78 profit on your winning treble = £206.12 profit
• Gidleigh Park Loses - £200 profit on your exchange lay. £10 loss on your treble = £190 profit

Option 3: Cash Out/Partial Cash Out

Continuing the theme, you will also find the cash out terms are far more attractive if your last leg is a short price as opposed to a long shot, which makes sense from the bookmaker's standpoint. In the case of a 16/1 shot, you probably aren’t going to win, so the bookmakers are less inclined to offer an appealing deal. With a 5/6 chance, you probably will win, increasing the motivation of the bookie to provide a cash out deal closer to the actual payout value of the bet.

Ultimately, the Choice is Yours

Hopefully, the above will shed a little light on the options available should you find yourself in the enviable position of needing only the last leg of your acca to prevail. However, whether you ultimately decide to Cash Out entirely, create a risk-free bet with a Partial Cash Out, Guarantee a profit by backing every other runner in the field, or head to the betting exchanges comes down to your appetite for risk and the value you place on the potential sums involved.

If you are considering cashing out, don’t rush straight into it. You may find that backing every other runner or (more likely) laying your final selection on a betting exchange is a better option. Your bank balance may thank you for taking a couple of minutes to weigh up the alternatives. 

More Betting Guides:

5 Mistakes to Avoid When Betting on Horse Racing

What is a Bad Each Way Race?

What is a Saver Bet and When to Use One?