Premier League: Match Day 16 Treble

With the festive season now snowballing into view, there’s little rest for the Premier League stars. Next up on the congested Christmas fixture list, we have a full slate of games this weekend.

The Manchester derby takes centre stage on Super Sunday as Ruben Amorim makes his first trip to the Etihad with the Red Devils. Elsewhere, Forest and Villa provide a Saturday teatime TV treat, whilst down on the south coast, we have the latest edition of the M23 Derby as Brighton plays host to Crystal Palace.

Here, we pick out our best bets from the above three games as we bid to recoup a little of the Christmas expenditure with a winning treble.

Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa: Saturday 5:30 pm

First stop the City Ground for this clash between two sides who arrive on the back of impressive 3-2 wins on the road. Nuno Espirito Santo wrote himself into Forest folklore last weekend, with the Tricky Trees win at Old Trafford making him the first Forest manager to win at Anfield and Old Trafford in the same season. Villa, meanwhile, kept the Champion’s League good times going with a victory at RB Leipzig.

Sitting pretty in fifth, Forest are the surprise package in the Premier League this season. With Manchester City playing on Sunday, they will, at least briefly, move up to fourth if they pick up all three points. However, the same is true for Villa, who are behind Forest only on goal difference heading into the game.

Despite their lofty position, Forest sit only twelfth in the Premier League home table. They have scored one or fewer goals in six of seven home games, with the only exception seeing them put three past ten-man West Ham.

Having won three of their first four on the road, Villa have now lost three on the spin – at Spurs, Liverpool, and Chelsea. Scoring two or more at West Ham, Leicester, Ipswich, and Fulham, they managed only one at Spurs and drew a blank at Liverpool and Chelsea. It is also worth noting that Villas's record following a midweek Champions League game reads WDDLL.

Arriving as the fresher side, Forest will fancy their chances of seeing off Villa. However, their low goals output is a concern for a side vulnerable to pace on the break – of which Villa has plenty. We like the score draw in this one.

• Recommended Bet - Both Teams to Score and Match Result Draw @ 10/3 with bet365

Brighton vs Crystal Palace: Sunday 2:00 pm

The first of the Sunday televised games takes us to the Amex for the glamorously titled M23 Derby. Enjoying another solid season under new boss Fabian Hürzeler, Brighton sit seventh and only three points off the Champions League positions. Palace haven’t started quite so well and find themselves down in 17th and four points above the dreaded drop zone. Brighton held the edge in this fixture last season – winning 4-1 in this game and picking up a point courtesy of a 1-1 draw at Selhurst Park.

Brighton are yet to taste defeat at home in the league, picking up wins over the two Manchester clubs and that thrilling comeback success against Spurs. Given those wins, it is surprising that the Seagulls only picked up a point against Ipswich, Forest, Wolves, and Southampton. Both teams have scored in six of Brighton’s seven home games.

With only two wins, Palace have struggled home and away. Their solitary away success came when edging Ipswich 1-0 in their most recent game on the road. However, they backed that up with a home draw against Manchester City and are now unbeaten in four in the league. The Eagles have scored in six of seven on their travels and conceded twice four times.

Four of the last six editions of this game have ended 1-1. That result is a big player again, but we favour the hosts to nick it. Brighton are averaging 1.96xG-for at home this season and face a side which has already conceded twice at Brentford, Everton, and Wolves.

• Recommended Bet - Brighton to win and Both Teams to Score @ 13/5 with bet365

Manchester City vs Manchester United: Sunday 4:30 pm

Finally, the big one at the Etihad, as defending champions City take on a United side at the beginning of yet another fresh start. City comfortably held the edge in the league meetings between the sides last season – winning 3-1 here and 3-0 at Old Trafford – but United gained revenge when causing a shock in the FA Cup Final.

Earlier in the season, we would have been confident that City would pick up all three points here. However, things have changed in recent weeks. Having gone unbeaten in 13 games from the start of the Premier League season, Pep Guardiola’s men have now implausibly lost seven of their last 10 following a 2-0 midweek defeat at Juventus. The loss of Rodri appears to have disabled City as a defensive unit, but they remain a potent attacking force – hitting two or more in five of seven Premier League games at home.

Manchester United, meanwhile, remain a mess. Any optimism following a 4-0 home defeat of a poor Everton side in Ruben Amorim’s first League game has been dampened in subsequent weeks. Played off the park in a loss at Arsenal, their calamitous defending then reared its head in a 3-2 home defeat to Nottingham Forest.

Despite their recent troubles, City really should have enough to see off United at home. However, given the defensive issues of the sides, the best bet may be to side with goals in what should be an entertaining encounter.

• Recommended Bet - Over 3.5 goals @ 11/10 with bet365

A £10 bet on the above treble returns £327.60 with bet365.

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