Premier League Match Day 25 Treble: Spurs vs Man Utd Takes Centre Stage
Recent weeks have witnessed an overload of cup action, with the Carabao Cup approaching a conclusion, the FA Cup providing its annual shock result, and the Champions League reaching the knockout stages. As such, it is refreshing that this coming weekend lays on the bread and butter of the campaign with a full list of Premier League fixtures.
Kicking off with Brighton vs Chelsea on Friday evening and running through to the bum fight between Spurs and Man United in North London, we have ten matches to sink our punting teeth into. Needing little excuse to join in the fun, here we pick out our three best bets ahead of what promises to be another excellent weekend.
Fulham vs Nottingham Forest – Saturday, 15:00
We head to Craven Cottage for our first clash as ninth-placed Fulham take on the surprise package of the Premier League season, Nottingham Forest.
Sitting pretty in third, six points clear of fifth-placed Manchester City, and having subjected Brighton to a 7-0 battering in their most recent Premier League outing, the Tricky Trees will likely head south brimming with confidence.
However, Nuno Espirito Santo can’t afford to take anything for granted facing a Fulham side who have posted the fourth-best xG points total in the league this season and won 1-0 at the City Ground earlier in the campaign.
The xG figures here narrowly favour the hosts, but having won only 33% of their home fixtures, Fulham make limited appeal at 5/4. Turning to the goals-related markets, the opposing high/low BTTS%s make things tricky, whilst the Over 2.5% numbers don’t provide much of an angle.
The best bet here is simply to side with Forest to keep the good times rolling. xG has its merits, but so does the fact that the visitors sit 11 points clear of Fulham. Having won seven of 12 on the road, including victories at Liverpool, Manchester United, and Brentford, odds of 5/2 for the away win look worth taking.
- Best Bet - Nottingham Forest to win @ 5/2 with Betfred
West Ham United vs Brentford – Saturday, 15:00
With a new manager settling in and a host of exciting signings, West Ham were supposed to be in for an excellent season. Six months on, and the hapless Hammers languish in 16th position as any hope of a European challenge disappears over the horizon. Brentford, meanwhile, have performed much as expected, i.e. failing to threaten the elite but surviving with a fair bit to spare.
This game is made a little trickier to assess, given the recent appointment of Graham Potter at the London Stadium. Four Premier League games into his rein, the early assessment is that the ex-Brighton boss has tightened West Ham up a little. Before his appointment, West Ham games were averaging a total of 3.62 xG goals per game. Since taking the hot seat in January, that number is down to 2.70
Despite the refocus, West Ham fixtures are still coming out above the 2.5 goals per game from an xG perspective. When we combine that with the fact that 71% of Brentford games have featured over 2.5 goals, siding with an open, goal-laden game looks the way to go. Odds of 8/13 for over 2.5 goals represent a 61.90% chance, which looks perfectly fair.
- Best Bet - Over 2.5 Goals @ 8/13 with Betfred
Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester United – Sunday, 16:30
What has gone wrong at Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United? Perennial top-four challengers, the 2024/25 campaign sees the beleaguered duo dreaming of a top-half finish. Spurs can be given a very slight pass, given the injury crisis in North London. As for the overrated and overpaid squad at Manchester United, excuses ran out long ago.
Spurs bounced back to winning ways in the league at Brentford last time out but have since been dumped out of both domestic Cup competitions. Saving some face in the Premier League and the Europa League are all that remains. Morale can’t be at an all-time high in North London. However, they can look back to the reverse of this fixture with fondness, having thumped the Red Devils 3-0 at Old Trafford.
United, meanwhile, slumped to yet another home defeat against Palace last time out in the league before barely scraping past basement-dwellers Leicester City in the Cup.
Trusting either of these sides to do the business is fraught with financial peril. As such, we will turn to the goals markets for our selection. Odds of 4/9 suggest a 69.23% chance, which is narrowly below the average for all Spurs home games. However, the xG total for both sides edges over 3 goals per game. With the continuing issues in the Spurs back line and United's fondness for calamity, this should be an entertaining affair.
- Best Bet - Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/9 with Betfred
A £10 treble on the above selections returns £81.67 with Betfred.
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