What Does it Mean to “Beat the Closing Line?”

Those interested in sports betting – particularly the US Sports betting scene – will have heard the phrase “Beat the Closing Line”.

The holy grail among many punters and a guiding principle for anyone who takes their betting activities at least semi-seriously - to beat the closing line essentially means to place a bet representing good value for money.

Moving away from the US-centric lingo and switching the theory to British shores, beating the closing line means beating the Starting Price (SP). Here, we take a closer look at this golden rule of sports betting, what it is, why it matters, and how to track the value of your bets.

Opening Line vs Closing Line

The opening line, or opening price, refers to the odds available when a sportsbook first provides odds on an event. These odds are created by the odds compilers using their opinions in combination with sophisticated statistical algorithms.

The compilers aim to make these odds as accurate as possible, but they are not set in stone. Between the opening line and the start of the sporting event, the odds may fluctuate due to factors such as the weight of betting money, additional information becoming available, or changing conditions; as more money and information hits the market, the odds adjust to reflect the new picture.

This process continues until the event begins, with the final price at kick-off, race start time, etc., referred to as the Closing Line.

Positive Closing Line Value vs Negative Closing Line Value

Closing Line Value refers to the difference between the odds you take when placing your bet and the Closing Line. If the odds you took are bigger than the Closing Line odds, you have obtained a Positive Closing Line Value bet. Conversely, if the Closing Line odds are greater than the odds you took, you have stumbled upon the unwanted Negative Closing Line Value.

Why is Positive Closing Line Value Important?

When placing a bet, you should always aim to take odds that underestimate the chance of the event occurring. For example, if you believe a boxing match is a 50/50 event, but one fighter is available at 6/4 (representing only a 40% chance of winning), taking the 6/4 would represent a good value bet – provided your 50/50 assessment is accurate.

The tricky part with betting on sports is that we can never know, with certainty, what the correct odds are, unlike mechanical betting pursuits such as the spin of a roulette wheel. However, study after study has shown that the odds most accurately reflect the winning chances just before the off, i.e., the closing price.

This result makes sense logically. Whilst the initial odds reflect only the opinions of the odds compilers and their algorithms, as time passes, more information and opinions are added to the market, allowing the odds to encompass more data and edge ever closer to an “accurate value”.

If the closing line most accurately reflects the winning chance of the competitors, it makes sense to place our bets at longer odds than this closing line. Say we place our bet early, take a price of 3/1 (4.0), and watch as the odds move to a Closing Line of 2/1. We have a solid value bet – our 3/1 suggests the bet has a 25% chance of winning, whereas the more accurate Closing Line places this chance at 33%.

Clearly, this scenario is preferable to the reverse – taking a price of 2/1 ahead of a closing line price of 3/1. In this instance, we suspected the bet had a better than 33% chance of winning, but the closing line places this value at only 25%.

Over time, if you continually place bets at odds greater than the closing line (or Starting Price), you can expect to make money. To use a toss of a fair coin as an example, beating the closing line is akin to receiving odds of 11/10 for the coin to land on heads. Sure, you may lose a few bets in a row, but repeatedly taking 11/10 about a true Even Money shot can only see your betting balance head in the right direction.

Beating the Closing Line Examples

Hopefully, the above helps demystify Beating the Closing line, but let’s look at a few examples to reinforce the point.

Traditional Odds

In the most popular betting pursuits - such as football and horse racing - most odds are listed in fractional, e.g. 7/4, or decimal, e.g. 2.75, form.

To use horse racing as an example, say you are assessing the Cambridgeshire Handicap at Newmarket and have noted a heavy downpour is forecast ahead of the race. With that in mind, you spot a horse who relishes soft ground but is among the rank outsiders at 50/1 (51.0). Adjudging that price to be much too big, you place your bet. Happily, the weather forecasters are right for once; the rain arrives to create soft ground, and your selection tumbles into 14/1 (15.0) to reflect the new conditions. You have beaten the closing line by a considerable margin and, win, lose, or draw, have a great value bet.

US Style Odds

The term "Closing Line" originated in the US, where betting on the match outcome is known as betting on the “Money Line”. As opposed to traditional odds or decimal systems, US odds are commonly expressed as the profit you would receive for placing a $100 bet, or the amount you must stake to win $100, e.g., +200 means you would win $200 + your $100 stake if the bet is successful (equivalent to 2/1 or 3.0), whereas -120 means you must stake $120 to win $100 plus your $120 stake (equivalent to 5/6 or 1.83).

Regarding a Positive Closing Line Value, obtaining a price of +300 for a selection that closes at +200 represents a positive result, as does obtaining a price of -120 for a selection which closes at -150.

US Handicap Betting

In the US, handicap betting is, by far, the most popular form of betting, e.g., Green Bay Packers (-2.5) 10/11, Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) 10/11. For these markets, the compilers will most often adjust the handicap (known as the spread) rather than the odds. If a wave of money comes in for the Packers, the closing line may adjust to Green Bay Packers (-4.5) 10/11, Baltimore Ravens(+4.5) 10/11. Punters who backed Green Bay(-2.5) would have Beaten the Closing Line, whereas those who supported Baltimore (+2.50) would be staring at a Negative Closing Line Value Bet.

How to Beat the Closing Line

As with most things in life, beating the closing line is far easier in theory than in practice. Nevertheless, there are a few factors which may increase your chances:

• Bet Early Rather than Late If you believe a price is too big due to factors not yet reflected in the market, the best advice is to act swiftly. Rest assured, the market will react to these factors eventually and adjust the odds accordingly
• Open Multiple Betting Accounts In betting, it pays to shop around. When placing your bet, always take the best price available with the accounts you hold; the higher the price taken, the more likely it is to beat the closing line.
• Take Advantage of Best Odds Guaranteed This factor won’t help you achieve a Positive Closing Line Value but removes the possibility of the dreaded Negative Closing Line Value. The Best Odds Guaranteed Promotion (usually only available on horse racing) states that if the Starting Price is bigger than the price you took, you will receive the bigger price. This creates a situation where you have either a Positive Closing Line Bet (if the price you took beats the SP) or a bet that has neither a positive nor negative closing line value

Tracking Bets and Calculating Closing Line Value

If profit is the aim of the game in your betting activities (and why wouldn’t it be?), we recommend noting your bets in a simple spreadsheet detailing the price you took and the Closing Line price (SP). Doing so is a good way to track the accuracy of your betting judgement – consistently beat the Closing Line, and you are likely onto a profitable strategy; consistently fall behind the Closing Line, and you may need to make a few tweaks.

One thing to note is that not all Positive/Negative Closing Line values are created equally. Obtaining 3/1 about a 2/1 chance or 7/1 about a 6/1 chance both represent 1-point gains. However, the difference between 3/1 and 2/1 is an 8% gain (33%-25%), whereas the difference between 7/1 and 6/1 is only 1.79% (14.29%-12.5%).

Multiplying this percentage gain (or loss) by your stake allows you to calculate the Expected Value of your bets in real money terms. Any single bet may win or lose regardless of the expected value, but, over a large sample of bets, your total profit should begin to align with the accumulated Expected Value of your bets.

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