What Stats to Use for Football Betting

The 21st Century is a golden age for football punters in the UK. In the Premier League, we have the most admired domestic competition on the planet, whilst the wealth of betting options has never been greater, with innovative new stats-based punts, bet-builders, cash-out options, and much more creating an overwhelming sea of choice. Throw in a steady stream of great value welcome bonuses and regular football-related promotions, and it is easy to understand why betting on the beautiful game continues to soar in popularity.

As the number of bet types has grown, so has the array of punting tools. Whilst not quite at the level of the statistician’s heaven of US sports, football punters now have a wealth of statistical data at their fingertips - from the plain old league table to the in-vogue Expected Goals and on to the distance covered by every player in each-and-every game. Studying the latest Premier League fixture list has the potential to open up a minefield of statistical information.

There is no concrete right or wrong way to approach stats in football betting, with stats-based methods varying from one individual to the next. However, in our humble opinion, you won’t go too far wrong by considering some (or all) of the following factors:

• Last 6 Games Form
• Home/Away Form
• Both Teams to Score %
• Over 2.5 Goals %
• Expected Goals For
• Expected Goals Against

Comparing the Sides

Our first step when analysing any game is to compare the relative quality of the two sides. A cursory look at the league table will provide a quick guide but doesn’t always present a clear picture; this is particularly true early in the season, where the quality of the teams faced by each side can vary widely, and overall ability may not yet be reflected by league position.

The league table is more reliable later in the campaign, but, whatever stage we are betting at, we prefer to concentrate on what a side has done recently rather than their overall performance over the campaign as a whole.

Last 6 Matches

In our experience, the form of most sides fluctuates, at least to some degree, between the kick-off in August and the conclusion in May.

For example, the season-long stats may show that Team A has won 6 of 12 Premier League fixtures - a respectable record at first glance, but not so encouraging if the results sequence runs as follows – W W W W W W D L L L L L. Anyone doubting whether a team could fall off a cliff so spectacularly need only look at the 2024/25 edition of Manchester City.

So, if considering every game is too many, how far should we go back in the recent form of the sides? Clearly, one game is too few – anyone who backed Spurs in 2024/25 will testify to the dangers of backing a side to follow up one excellent display with another.

Some punters favour 10 games. However, that accounts for over 25% of the season and is still too many, in our opinion. For us, the sweet spot is the last six games of each side – a big enough number to iron out bad luck a little but still small enough to track form fluctuations throughout the campaign.

When betting on the Premier League, we lend the most weight to the Last 6 Premier League games of the sides. For cup competitions, we are more inclined to consider the last 6 games in all competitions. When comparing the relative six-match form figures of the sides, we are looking to identify the games in which the recent form of the teams is not necessarily reflected in the odds.

Quality of Opposition

When assessing the Last 6 form figures, it is too simplistic to look at the bare WLD results. At first glance, form figures of WWDWDW are more appealing than LDDDLD. However, we also need to consider the quality of the opposition. If Team A produced those WWDWDW results against six of the bottom eight sides in the league, whilst Team B picked up their sequence against six of the top eight, the match begins to look more even.

Home vs Away Form

The support of the home crowd has a significant impact on the result of a Premier League fixture. Over the five seasons between 2019/20 and 2023/24, home teams won 44% of games. The home win percentage sat between 43% and 48% in every season bar 2020/21, which posted a surprisingly low 38%. However, that outlier isn’t much of a surprise at all, considering almost the entire campaign took place behind closed doors due to the global pandemic.

That home sides do better than away sides on average is an established fact. However, this trend does not apply to all sides equally. In any given season, there are sides who show a marked disparity between their home and away form. Some perform significantly better than average at home but are below par on the road and vice versa, e.g. Newcastle United, who finished fourth in the 2023/24 home table but were only 11th in the away standings.

The Last 6 form figures of a side may suggest a potential betting opportunity, but before rushing in, we recommend factoring the home/away win percentages of the two sides into your decision.

A Note on Head-to-Head Records

In many football betting previews, you will read something along the lines of, “Team A has beaten Team B in eight of the past 10 League meetings.” An interesting stat, which no doubt brings back unhappy memories for supporters of Team B. However, in our opinion, it is of little relevance to the result of an upcoming fixture. A stat quoting 10 league meetings spans five seasons - likely encompassing a vast turnover of players and at least one managerial change for each side.

Rather than representing an unexplainable inherent edge one club holds over another, head-to-head records are most often a reflection of the fortunes of the two sides over time. In our opinion, any “trend” is just as likely to reverse as continue.

One example from hundreds should help illustrate the point. Ahead of their clash with Southampton on 10th March 2018, Newcastle United had failed to win any of their previous seven games with the Saints, losing four times, including two 4-0 hammerings. Not only did Newcastle win that day, they won nine of the following 13 meetings, losing only once. Our message - don’t believe in bogey teams, and with the exception of very recent meetings, ignore historical head-to-head trends.

What Type of Game?

The above factors focus primarily on identifying betting opportunities in the match result market. However, there is far more to bet on than which side will win the game. From fouls to passes, corners, and more, if it can happen in a football game, you can probably bet on it. Away from the match result, our favourite punts come in the goals-related markets where we use the following stats to zero in on our weekly selections.

Both Teams to Score Percentage

On any given weekend, the odds for Both Teams to Score in a Premier League fixture will typically range from around 4/9 to 17/20, signifying a chance of 54.05% to 69.23%.

At the mid-point of the 2024/25 season, the Both Teams to Score percentage of no fewer than 13 Premier League sides fell outside of this range (For eight sides, both teams scored in 70%+ of their games and for five, in 53% or less). These high/low figures are often the result of random variance and may even out over time. However, the trend for or against both team's scoring may stem from the playing style. Two examples from the 2024/25 campaign were wide-open yet effective Fulham and Everton, who parked the bus following a poor defensive start to the season.

Spotting such trends early, in tandem with a logical reason as to why they are appearing, can point the way towards a profitable punting avenue.

Over Under 2.5 Goals Percentage

Before BTTS arrived, over 2.5 goals was by far and away the most popular goals-related football bet. The bet retains its appeal among punters and is supported by readily available statistical data for the biggest leagues.

The Over/Under 2.5 Goals Percentages of each side can help identify potentially profitable bets. A high figure from one side and a low percentage for the other may cancel each other out, so look for games featuring two complementary Percentages.

One further angle we like to look at is found in fixtures where both sides lean towards low-scoring games. In addition to a bet on under 2.5 goals, a bet on the draw is worth considering as the two most common draws (0-0 and 1-1) fall into the under 2.5 goals category.

Assessing Performance

Thus far, the stats mentioned express results without delving too deeply into why a team performs as it does - or even whether the results of a side reflect how well they are playing.

To complete our rounded approach to game analysis, we turn to two stats that demonstrate how effective a team is at creating and limiting chances.

Expected Goals (xG)

Boasting origins in 1993 and developed extensively in the early 21st century, Expected Goals (xG) has become one of the most talked about football statistics in the modern game. Some swear by it, whilst others scoff. For us, xG is another factor we like to include in our decision-making process.

For the uninitiated, xG assigns a numerical rating to every chance in a game, ranging from 0 to 1.

0 reflects a chance that almost certainly won’t result in a goal, e.g. the keeper attempting an overhead kick from inside his own six-yard box. 1, meanwhile, suggests the type of tap in that even Ronnie Rosenthal would struggle to spurn.

By tallying the xG values of all chances created, an overall xG figure is created, which signifies the number of goals a side would be expected to score given the quality of chances they create (irrespective of how many goals they did score). This figure is known as xG-for.

xG-against, as the name suggests, represents the number of goals a side would be expected to concede given the quality of the chances created by the opposition. Many believe that the average xG for and against is the most accurate guide to how well a side is playing and, over time, results will fall in line with those suggested by xG performance.

There are flaws with the xG methodology, as it doesn’t fully account for the quality of the player the chance falls to – what may be a 0.6xG chance for Erling Haaland likely wouldn’t be for Ronnie Rosenthal (sorry Ronnie). Some teams score more goals than others not only by creating more solid chances but also because their players are more capable of taking those opportunities. Nevertheless, it is worth including the xG figures to help create an overall picture of the game.

Shots on Target per Percentage of Possession

An alternative method of analysing performance is to measure how effective a side is at creating chances given their possession percentage.

Whilst some sides, e.g. Manchester City, rely on holding onto the ball to shift the opposition and create opportunities, others are more effective when defending solidly before breaking quickly to create chances on the counter. As such, it is a little simplistic to suggest that a side is more likely to win simply because they will have more of the ball.

After 20 games of the Premier League season, Manchester City were averaging 61.4% possession per game and producing 5.9 shots-on-target per game, equating to 1 shot on target for every 10.40% of possession. Liverpool, meanwhile, were averaging 56.9% possession but registering a higher 6.9 shots-on-target per game, equating to 1 shot on target for every 8.25% possession. As the league table suggested at this stage, Liverpool were much the more effective side from an attacking perspective.

Of course, the attacking side is only half of the game. We also need to assess how well a side limits shots on target when they don’t have the ball. Over the first 20 games of the season, Manchester City conceded an average of 3.60 shots on target per game. Considering City didn’t have the ball for an average of 38.60% of matches, this equates to 1 shot-on-target-against for every 10.72% of the opposition possession. At the same stage, Liverpool had given up an average of 3.21 shots on target per game and were out of possession 43.10% of the time, creating a figure of 1 shot on target against per 13.42% of opposition possession.

We can use these numbers to produce an expected shots-on-target figure for each side. Our first step is to create a predicted possession percentage for the two teams. Next, we use the shots-on-target-per-possession percentage to create an expected-shots-on-target figure.

For example, if Manchester City played Liverpool on neutral ground, we could adjust the 61.40% and 56.9% possession figures to total 100%. This creates 61.40/(61.40+56.90) = 51.90% for Manchester City and 48.10% for Liverpool.

With an average of 10.40% possession per shot on target, City can be expected to have 5 shots on target (51.90/10.4=5). On the other side of the coin, Liverpool concedes 1 shot on target per 13.42% of opposition possession, for an expected-shots-on-target-against total of 3.87 (51.90/13.42=3.87). Combining City’s expected-shots-on-target-for and Liverpool’s expected-shots-on-target-against figures creates an average of 4.44 expected-shots-on-target for City.

Needing 8.25% possession per shot on target, Liverpool can be expected to have 5.83 shots (48.10/8.25=5.83). City meanwhile, concedes 1 shot on target per 10.72% of possession, for an expected-shots-on-target-against total of 4.39 (48.10/10.72=4.39). Combining Liverpool’s expected-shots-on-target-for and Manchester City’s expected-shots-on-target-against creates an average of 5.11 expected-shots-on-target for Liverpool.

City’s ability on the ball brings them closer to the more effective Reds, but Liverpool deserves to start as favourites to win the game.

Bringing it all Together

So that’s the stats we predominantly base our football betting upon, and we bring them together in a simple table, as shown in this example for the Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool clash in January 2025. This table was produced before the result of that game but illustrates the factors in our decision-making.

This is a clash between two in-form sides, with Forest seeking to win a seventh league game on the spin. With the quality of recent opponents being similar, we can treat the Last 6 form figures as being of equal merit.

However, Liverpool holds the edge in every other measure. The better side on both sides of the ball from an xG perspective, they come out 1.64 ahead on the expected shots on target count, which, given the quality of their attacking line-up, should be enough to pick up all three points. Having won almost 4 in 5 on the road, a general price of 3/4 for the away win looked perfectly fair.

The second bet to stand out was Both Teams to Score (No) at a general 13/10. Those odds represent a percentage chance of 43.48%, but the bet would have landed in 60% of Forest games and 47% of Liverpool fixtures.

Two singles on Liverpool to win and Both Teams to Score (No) were our selections for this game, in addition to backing Liverpool to win to nil at 12/5.

For those who wish to follow this method (or remove factors if you prefer a more straightforward approach), a blank football betting checklist is contained at the end of this guide. Having a checklist helps create a methodical approach and decreases the chance of overlooking important information.

Additional Considerations

Of course, football is not all about the numbers. Before placing any bet, we assess two less numerically definable factors, which may significantly impact results.

Injuries and Suspensions

When considering backing a side, you ideally want them to have their first choice 11 on the pitch – or at least something very close to it. Using our Forest vs Liverpool example, all of our analysis would go out of the window if it emerged that Mo Salah and Virgil van Dijk would miss the game. Always keep up to date with the latest injury and suspension information before placing your bets.

Upcoming Fixtures

When backing any side, of course, we want them to win. As such, it would be nice to know they are fully motivated to do so. Can we count on the manager to field his strongest eleven? Or does he have half an eye on a looming midweek Champions League fixture or domestic cup semifinal?

The motivation factor is also worth bearing in mind in the latter stages of the campaign, where many clashes feature one side with something to play for (the Title, Europe, Survival) and another already booked for mid-table obscurity. Avoiding outfits that may have begun planning their summer holidays is sensible advice.

Football Betting Checklist

Useful Websites

As mentioned in the introduction, the internet is positively crawling with football related stats sites. However, the following feature high on our list when assessing the latest fixtures.

• https://www.whoscored.com/
• https://fbref.com/en/
• https://footystats.org/
• https://understat.com/

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